Starbucks falls 1.7% after fiscal fourth-quarter results highlight China revenue headwinds

What happened

Starbucks (SBUX) fell 1.7% on October 30, 2026, because of fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat per-share estimates but highlighted revenue headwinds from a change in China reporting and licensing. The company reported fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results showing higher comparable sales, expanded operating margins and a significant rise in earnings per share; reported earnings were $0.8 per share for the quarter, beating estimates. Management said global same-store sales were up 7.2% for the quarter and U.S. comparable coffeehouse sales rose 7.7%, while the China reporting change reduced reported revenue and is expected to lower consolidated revenue in fiscal 2027 despite projected continued earnings growth.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $103.67 after the session, trading 1.2 times a typical daily move for this stock on volume 1.5 times its 20-day average. Over the last five sessions the stock rose 2.8% even as the S&P 500 fell 0.6% over that period; on the day the S&P 500 fell 1.8% and the Consumer Cyclical sector median fell 0.5%. Compared with its sector the stock was 1.3 percentage points worse than the sector median on the day, and its beta of 1.00 indicates the stock tends to move about as much as the market.

The technical picture

After the session the stock sat 5.9% above its 20-day moving average, 4.4% above its 50-day moving average and 3.8% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend, though the stock had been above its 200-day average for 7 consecutive trading days. Its Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 63, in a neutral range between 30 and 70, and the distance from the 52-week high was 6.2% below that high. Over one month the stock rose 9.3% and over one year it rose 23.2%, which is 13.2 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 27, 2026, Starbucks reported revenue of $37.90 billion, which grew 1.9% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $2.21, which rose 34.8% from a year earlier. Gross margin widened to 42.7% from 22.9% a year earlier, while operating margin was 9.7%, unchanged from a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 9.8% and return on invested capital was 9.0%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 3.1 times EBITDA and share count over one year increased by 0.3%.

On valuation the stock traded at 46.9 times trailing earnings and 39.4 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 3.2%. Its price-to-earnings reading was higher than 76% of its own readings over the past five years, with a five-year median of 31.2 times earnings. PromtFinance scores rank the company 13 on Value (Very weak), 49 on Growth (Neutral), 78 on Quality (Positive), 70 on Momentum (Positive), 45 on Revisions (Neutral) and 77 on Stability (Positive), each score within the sector context.

Earnings and analyst expectations

The last report, on October 29, 2026, showed earnings per share of $0.80 against $0.72 expected, 11.3% above estimates, and was the third consecutive quarter beating estimates. The company’s average surprise over the last four reports was 13.3% above estimates, and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock rose 0.2%. Management commentary included CEO Brian Niccol saying the turnaround plan is ahead of schedule and that he expects earnings growth to continue; he also noted becoming a multi-brand company as a possible future path, though it is not the current focus. Analysts’ consensus rating is Buy, with 47% of the 59 analysts reporting a Buy or Strong Buy and a consensus price target of $114.80, which is 10.7% above the closing price.

What to watch

• Next report: January 27, 2027.
• Last report: October 29, 2026: earnings per share of $0.80 against $0.72 expected, 11.3% above estimates.
• Market value: $114.91 billion and a consensus price target of $114.80.
• Global same-store sales: up 7.2% for the quarter; U.S. comparable coffeehouse sales rose 7.7%.
• Trading volume: 1.5 times its 20-day average on the October 30, 2026, session.