GEO rises 10.4% after third-quarter results beat estimates and outlook raised

What happened

GEO rose 10.4% on November 6, 2026, after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its 2026 earnings outlook. The stock opened 0.6% above the previous close and finished the day at a closing price of $27.80. Trading volume ran 2.3 times its 20-day average as the Industrials sector median rose 1.1% on the day.

How big was the move

The gain was 3.5 times a typical daily move for this stock and was 9.4 percentage points better than the Industrials sector median. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% on the day, and the stock’s five-session performance fell 2.5% compared with the S&P 500’s five-session decline of 2.7%. Market sensitivity is modest: the stock has a beta of 0.78, which means the stock tends to move less than the market. Volume and magnitude together mark this as a significant, company-driven reaction tied to the earnings release that day.

The technical picture

The stock traded 2.0% below its 20-day moving average and 7.4% below its 50-day moving average, while it remained 13.5% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock has spent 142 consecutive trading days above the 200-day average. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 46, in a neutral range between 30 and 70. GEO was 16.2% below its 52-week high; over one month the stock fell 10.2% and over three months it fell 9.3%.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, revenue was $2.91 billion, which grew 14.8% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $1.25, a figure that fell 26.5% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 42.5% (a year earlier: 79.9%), while operating margin was 13.0% (a year earlier: 9.5%). Free-cash-flow margin was 7.5% and return on invested capital was 6.8%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 2.8 times EBITDA, and the share count over one year decreased by 5.7%.

Valuation metrics show a price to trailing earnings of 22.2 times trailing earnings and price to forward earnings of 21.2 times expected earnings. The free-cash-flow yield was 5.8%. The price to trailing earnings is higher than 76% of its own readings over the past five years (five-year median: 14.8 times earnings), indicating the stock trades at elevated multiples relative to its recent history.

Earnings and analyst expectations

GEO reported on November 5, 2026, earnings per share of $0.39 against $0.35 expected, 12.5% above estimates. That report marked the company’s third consecutive quarter beating estimates, and its average surprise over the last four reports was 23.5% above estimates. The company reported record third-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA, driven by immigration detention contracts and higher transportation services; it raised its 2026 earnings outlook.

For the third quarter revenue rose 12% to $761.1 million from $682.3 million a year earlier, adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to $145.3 million, and adjusted net income was $51.8 million, or $0.39 per share, according to MarketBeat and Defense World. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports have fallen 3.8%, making this session’s 10.4% rise an unusually strong immediate market response.

Analysts maintain a consensus rating of Buy. Twelve analysts cover the stock, with 67% giving a rating of Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00, which is 43.9% above the closing price. Expected next report date is February 11, 2027.

What to watch

• November 5, 2026: earnings per share of $0.39 against $0.35 expected, 12.5% above estimates
• Third-quarter revenue of $761.1 million, up 12% from $682.3 million a year earlier
• Adjusted EBITDA of $145.3 million, up 21% year-over-year
• Consensus price target $40.00, 43.9% above the closing price
• Next report: February 11, 2027