Stocks · Industrials · Security & Protection Services
The GEO Group, Inc. GEO
$32.34 +3.13% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $4.19B
Strong growthStrong trend
Next earnings report: Nov 5, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $2.12, up 226.2% year over year.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 118 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
- The diluted share count fell 6.0% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Industrials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
Growth82Strong
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 29%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 5%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 40%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 44%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 38%
Quality45Neutral
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 44%
- Gross marginTop 20%
- Operating marginTop 33%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 31%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 28%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 43%
- Interest coverBottom 39%
Value79Positive
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 8%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 43%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 13%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 48%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 48%
Momentum96Exceptional
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 16%
- 6-month returnTop 5%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 13%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 4%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 11%
Revisions72Positive
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 20%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 45%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 36%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 39%
Stability40Weak
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 29%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 31%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 25%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 43%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 12.7% | 15.3% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 936.8% | 226.2% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 100.0% | 42.4% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 11.6% | 11.2% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 5.3% | 5.7% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 15.3% | 12.7% | ↑ | Top 29% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 226.2% | 936.8% | ↓ | Top 5% |
| Gross margin | 42.4% | 100.0% | ↓ | Top 20% |
| Operating margin | 11.2% | 11.6% | ↓ | Top 33% |
| Net margin | 10.3% | 3.7% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 5.7% | 5.3% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 6.8% | — | Top 44% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 3.5% | — | Bottom 44% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.22×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -1.7%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.9%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +21.1 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 2.40×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 2.1×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 5.34%
- Shareholder yield
- 5.34%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -6.0%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +2.3%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 2
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +23.7%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $40.00
- Target vs current price
- +23.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 12
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 67%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +28.7% | -4.1% | +0.1% | -2.7% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | +52.6% | +20.9% | +16.6% | +28.5% | +68.2% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | +0.0% | -14.9% | -3.2% | -10.9% | +37.5% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | +13.6% | -8.3% | -11.2% | +2.1% | -6.3% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | +37.5% | -11.5% | -19.5% | -18.6% | -35.4% |
| May 7, 2025 | -22.2% | -10.0% | -12.4% | -11.8% | -17.7% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | -38.1% | +6.1% | -0.4% | +15.0% | +5.0% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -16.0% | +13.6% | +18.5% | +35.5% | +32.1% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.37 | $0.29 | +28.7% | $732.1M |
| May 6, 2026 | $0.29 | $0.19 | +52.6% | $705.2M |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $0.25 | $0.25 | +0.0% | $707.7M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.25 | $0.22 | +13.6% | $682.3M |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.22 | $0.16 | +37.5% | $636.2M |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.14 | $0.18 | -22.2% | $604.6M |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $0.13 | $0.21 | -38.1% | $607.7M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.21 | $0.25 | -16.0% | $603.1M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 15.3× | 14.2× | 57th | Top 8% |
| P/E (forward) | 25.5× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.9× | — | — | Top 13% |
| EV / Sales | 2.03× | — | — | Top 48% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.85% | — | — | Top 43% |
| Earnings yield | 6.56% | — | — | Top 8% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 6.6× – 144.0× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +61.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +226.2%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -59.6%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 2
- Days above the 200-day average
- 118
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.4%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +7.0%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +3.5%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +40.2%
- RSI (14)
- 57.0
- Relative volume
- 1.57×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 33.1%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 7th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.48
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.31
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -1.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -62.5%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025 | Feb 20, 2026 | -62.5% | 273 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 2, 2020 | May 26, 2021 | -56.3% | 162 days | 381 days (Nov 29, 2022) |
| Feb 10, 2023 | Aug 25, 2023 | -43.4% | 135 days | 137 days (Mar 13, 2024) |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Aug 7, 2024 | -32.5% | 16 days | 64 days (Nov 6, 2024) |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Jun 21, 2024 | -21.2% | 52 days | 14 days (Jul 12, 2024) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $4.19B
- P/E (TTM)
- 15.3
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $2.12
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.83B
- 52-week range
- $12.51 – $33.17
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.26B | $2.38B | $2.41B | $2.42B | $2.63B |
| Gross profit | $627.6M | $713.8M | $668.9M | $2.42B | $663.1M |
| Operating income | $288.1M | $383.9M | $352.4M | $310.0M | $257.5M |
| Net income | $77.4M | $171.8M | $107.3M | $32.0M | $254.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.58 | $1.17 | $0.72 | $0.22 | $1.82 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $603.1M | $607.7M | $604.6M | $636.2M | $682.3M | $707.7M | $705.2M | $732.1M |
| Net income | $26.3M | $15.5M | $19.6M | $29.1M | $173.9M | $31.8M | $38.3M | $47.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.19 | $0.11 | $0.14 | $0.21 | $1.24 | $0.23 | $0.29 | $0.36 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $282.6M | $296.4M | $284.9M | $242.2M | $72.6M |
| Capital expenditure | -$69.4M | -$90.0M | -$73.0M | -$78.7M | -$197.5M |
| Free cash flow | $213.2M | $206.4M | $211.9M | $163.5M | -$124.9M |
| Dividends paid | -$30.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $297,000 | $264,000 | $5.8M | $8.3M | -$86.3M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $57.1M
- Total assets
- $3.74B
- Total liabilities
- $2.23B
- Total debt
- $1.61B
- Net debt
- $1.55B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.52B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2021 | $0.25 | Feb 1, 2021 |
| Oct 15, 2020 | $0.34 | Oct 23, 2020 |
| Jul 16, 2020 | $0.48 | Jul 24, 2020 |
| Apr 16, 2020 | $0.48 | Apr 24, 2020 |
| Feb 13, 2020 | $0.48 | Feb 21, 2020 |
| Oct 24, 2019 | $0.48 | Nov 1, 2019 |
| Jul 18, 2019 | $0.48 | Jul 26, 2019 |
| Apr 12, 2019 | $0.48 | Apr 22, 2019 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 9,576,993
- Days to cover
- 4.59
- Change vs previous report
- -9.8%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Apr 25, 2017
- 3-for-2
- Jun 1, 2007
- 2-for-1
- Oct 2, 2006
- 3-for-2
- Jun 4, 1996
- 2-for-1