ICF International falls 16.5% after quarterly results

What happened

ICF International (ICFI) fell 16.5% on November 6, 2026, after quarterly results beat earnings estimates but missed revenue expectations. Trading volume was 2.4 times its 20-day average as the stock opened 15.6% below the previous close and the market digested the company’s reported numbers. The move came while the S&P 500 rose 0.3% on the day and the Industrials sector median rose 1.0%, leaving ICF International 17.5 percentage points worse than its sector median.

How big was the move

The decline was large by the stock’s own standards: it was 5.9 times a typical daily move and equal to the stock’s five-session change, which also fell 16.5%. Volume at 2.4 times its 20-day average showed a clear increase in investor activity. The broader market was relatively calm, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3% on the day and falling 2.7% over five sessions. With a beta of 0.80, the stock tends to move less than the market, so the magnitude of this drop signals a company-specific reaction to the results.

The technical picture

Technically, the stock traded 13.4% below its 20-day moving average and 9.7% below its 50-day moving average while remaining 1.1% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock has spent 75 consecutive trading days above the 200-day average. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) stood at 30, which is in a neutral range between 30 and 70. Over one month the stock fell 8.2% and over three months it fell 12.9%, leaving it 20.8% below the 52-week high. Volatility was elevated at 44% annualized over 60 days, higher than 90% of its own readings over five years, which suggests larger price swings than the stock’s recent history.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, revenue was $1.83 billion, a decline of 5.2% from a year earlier, while diluted earnings per share were $5.31, which rose 0.2% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 35.8%, down from 37.2% a year earlier, while operating margin improved to 8.3% from 8.0% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 10.2% and return on invested capital was 6.8%. The balance sheet shows net debt of 2.7 times EBITDA, and share count over one year decreased by 2.5%.

On valuation metrics the stock trades at 15.0 times trailing earnings and 11.2 times expected forward earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 10.9%. Its price-to-earnings reading is lower than 90% of its own readings over the past five years, against a five-year median of 27.6 times earnings. Those figures position the stock toward the value end of its historical range despite weak revenue trends, reflecting a market willingness to pay less for current earnings and cash flow than in prior years.

Earnings and analyst expectations

The company’s last report, on November 5, 2026, showed earnings per share of $1.98 against $1.92 expected, 3.1% above estimates, marking two consecutive quarters beating estimates. The average surprise over the last four reports was 2.2% above estimates, and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock rose 0.9%. Revenues missed expectations in the latest quarter, and Zacks Investment Research noted that revenue missed consensus while margins, contract awards and a larger backlog supported profitability.

Analysts’ consensus price target is $110.00, which is 38.1% above the closing price, based on 13 analysts with a consensus rating of Buy and 69% of ratings at Buy or Strong Buy. The next report is scheduled for February 25, 2027. The contrast between the near-term revenue weakness and the upbeat consensus price target helps explain the sharp intraday reversal: investors focused on the revenue miss and pared positions, while longer-term analysts appear to see upside on earnings and cash flow.

What to watch

• November 5, 2026: company reported adjusted earnings of $1.98 per share, above the Zacks consensus of $1.89, with revenue missing expectations, according to Zacks Investment Research.
• February 25, 2027: next scheduled earnings report.
• Balance sheet leverage: net debt of 2.7 times EBITDA.
• Valuation gap: consensus price target of $110.00 versus the closing price, 38.1% higher.