Hillman Solutions rises 7.6% after quarterly results edge estimates

What happened

Hillman Solutions (HLMN) rose 7.6% on November 2, 2026, after third-quarter results that beat per-share expectations and the company updated its net sales outlook. The company reported quarterly earnings per share of $0.22 against $0.21 expected, 6.1% above estimates, and reiterated full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance while updating its net sales outlook, according to GlobeNewsWire and Zacks Investment Research. The stock opened 1.7% above the previous close and trading volume was 1.4 times its 20-day average, as the S&P 500 fell 0.5% on the day.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $8.39, a rise of 7.6% for the session and a gain of 15.9% over the last five sessions. That performance was 6.2 percentage points better than the Industrials sector median, which rose 1.3% on the day, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5%. The move was 3.5 times a typical daily move for this stock, and the market-value stood at $1.52 billion. In the past five years the stock had 6 sessions with a gain of at least 7.6%; twenty trading days later the median result was a decline of 5.3%, and 3 of 6 were higher.

The technical picture

The stock traded 14.8% above its 20-day moving average and 14.4% above its 50-day moving average, and it was 3.4% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend, and the Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 76, above 70, a level often called overbought. The shares remain 22.7% below the 52-week high. Over one month the stock rose 19.2%, over three months it fell 11.8% and over one year it fell 10.3%, leaving the one-year performance 20.8 percentage points behind the S&P 500. Volatility was 34% annualized over 60 days, lower than 68% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 26, 2026, Hillman Solutions reported revenue of $1.19 billion, a decline of 22.4% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $0.02, which fell 90.4% from a year earlier. Gross margin for the period narrowed to 25.7% from 48.8% a year earlier, while operating margin was 5.3% versus 7.2% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 5.8% and return on invested capital was 3.8%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 8.5 times EBITDA. Share count over one year decreased by 1.9%.

Valuation metrics show a wide divergence: the stock traded at 466.1 times trailing earnings, a reading higher than 91% of its own readings over the past five years (five-year median: 89.6 times earnings). Price to forward earnings was 14.4 times expected earnings and free-cash-flow yield was 4.5%. PromtFinance scores rank the company weak on Value at 27 and Growth at 12, with Quality at 40, Momentum at 47, Revisions at 52 and Stability at 47, each ranked within the sector.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Hillman Solutions reported quarterly earnings per share of $0.22 on November 2, 2026, against $0.21 expected, marking two consecutive quarters beating estimates. The company said Net Sales for the quarter were $457.5 million, a 7.7% increase year-over-year, and reiterated its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance while updating its net sales outlook, according to GlobeNewsWire and Zacks Investment Research. The next report is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Over the last four reports the average surprise was 1.3% below estimates, and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock rose 1.2%.

Analysts covering the stock number seven, with a consensus rating of Buy and 57% of raters at Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $13.00, which is 54.9% above the closing price on November 2, 2026.

What to watch

• November 3, 2026: Next scheduled earnings report.
• Net Sales outlook update provided with the November 2, 2026, results: company reiterated full-year adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance while updating net sales guidance.
• Balance-sheet leverage: net debt of 8.5 times EBITDA as reported for the four quarters through September 26, 2026.
• Valuation versus history: 466.1 times trailing earnings, higher than 91% of its own readings over the past five years.
• Trading activity: volume was 1.4 times its 20-day average on November 2, 2026.